1. Introduction:

Meat is a crucial source of animal protein and holds a prominent position in the human diet. Global per capita meat consumption has steadily increased over the past five decades, outpacing population growth (Ritchie & Roser, 2017). Annual global meat production now exceeds 340 million tonnes, with approximately 800 billion animals slaughtered each year (Mappr, 2019; Ritchie & Roser, 2017). In 2018 alone, staggering numbers were recorded, including 69 billion chickens, 1.5 billion pigs, 656 million turkeys, 574 million sheep, 479 million goats, and 302 million cattle (Shapiro,et. al., 2017; Ritchie H. & Roser M., 2017).

Meat consumption varies across countries, with emerging economies and high-income nations exhibiting higher per capita consumption due to increased affordability (Ritchie H. & Roser M., 2017; Whitton et al., 2021). The global average meat consumption is 41.90 kg per person annually (OECD, 2021). European Union countries have an average consumption of about 77.1 kg, the United States consumes approximately 124 kg, China consumes around 60 kg, while most African countries have a consumption rate of 10 kg or lower, with South Africa being an exception at 60-70 kg per capita (Mappr, 2019; Seleshe et al., 2014).

Global meat prices have risen due to factors such as feed prices, supply and demand dynamics, production costs, trade policies, global economic conditions, changes in consumption patterns, dietary preferences, and trade dynamics, particularly in economically emerging countries like China (FAO, 2021; Shahbandeh, 2022).

Ethiopia, with the fifth-largest cattle population globally, heavily relies on livestock for its economy, food production, and cultural significance. However, it ranks relatively low in global meat production, accounting for only 0.2% of the world's total meat production. In Ethiopian culture, meat holds significant cultural and social importance and plays a central role in traditional celebrations, social ceremonies, and meals (Birhanu, 2019, Seleshe et al., 2014). Meat consumption patterns and dietary choices in Ethiopia are influenced by cultural values, religious beliefs, and socioeconomic factors  (Birhanu, 2019; Seleshe et al., 2014). Raw meat consumption is socially and culturally accepted across different ethnic and religious backgrounds in Ethiopia, and rearing livestock for meat production is common, contributing significantly to household nutrition (Frelat et al., 2016).

Understanding the dynamics of meat production, demand, and consumption patterns in Ethiopia is crucial for leveraging the country's livestock resources and improving its meat industry. This study aims to address the limited information available on Ethiopia's meat production and productivity trends (irhanu, 2019; Seleshe et al., 2014). By analyzing meat production, consumption patterns, prices, and factors influencing the industry, it contributes to a better understanding of Ethiopia's livestock sector and its potential for meeting domestic demand and exploring export opportunities. The study's findings will provide valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders, enabling evidence-based decision-making and the development of strategies to enhance meat production and productivity in Ethiopia.

2. Materials and methods

In this study, a retrospective analysis method was employed, wherein secondary data from various sources were collected. The annual reports of the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) from 2005/2006 to 2018/2019 served as the primary data sources for livestock statistics, including meat production and productivity for each species and meat prices. Microsoft Excel was used to analyze the data, utilizing simple descriptive statistics and linear models. These analytical tools were used to detect and visualize trends in meat production and productivity, and meat price trends. Apart from the CSA reports, previously published documents and expert opinions were consulted to identify significant obstacles or factors influencing the industry, highlight key findings, and propose potential solutions.

3. Results and discussions

3.1. Trends in total meat production growth

Over 15 years, meat production in Ethiopia consistently demonstrated an upward trend, with the total output increasing from 67,950 tons in 2005/06 to 123,670 tons in 2018/19, representing an impressive overall growth rate of 82.01%. However, it is important to note that the annual growth trends displayed fluctuations, with a decline in 2012/13 and 2013/14, followed by a peak in 2017/18 and a slight decrease in subsequent years (Figure 1). These findings are in line with Ritchie H. & Roser M., (2017), who also reported significant growth trends in meat production for the entire East Africa region and a 121.1% increase specifically for Ethiopia.

The analysis highlights the reliance of meat production in Ethiopia on various livestock species, with cattle and sheep playing prominent roles. This corresponds with the findings of Bachewe et al., (2018); FAO & Palladium Group, (2019) , which emphasize the contributions of these animals to the Ethiopian meat industry. Additionally, the study reveals that the increase in meat production is primarily attributed to the expansion of livestock numbers rather than productivity improvements, as reported by Mohamed, (2019) (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Analysed total yearly meat production from all kinds of livestock

The analysis of cattle meat production in Ethiopia demonstrates consistent growth trends, with a notable 35% increase over the analyze periods. Cattle consistently maintain their position as the major contributors to the country's meat production, accounting for an average annual contribution of 41% (ranging from 35% to 47%) to the total output. This finding aligns with the research conducted by Bachewe et al. (2018), which emphasizes the significant role of cattle meat in Ethiopia's overall meat production. Similar to the overall trend in total meat production, the graph depicting cattle meat production also exhibits variations over the years (Figure 2), signifying fluctuations in the country's total meat production are largely influenced by changes in cattle-sourced meat that underscore the importance of cattle in Ethiopia's meat production sector.

Figure 2: Yearly produced cattle meat (analysed)

Ethiopia's beef meat production is roughly equivalent to Kenya's but significantly lower than Egypt's (Ritchie H. & Roser M., 2017, Boeckel et al., 2017). While Ethiopia and Kenya have comparable beef meat production levels, Ethiopia's production is notably lower than Egypt's due to Egypt's well-established and larger-scale beef industry (Boeckel et al., 2017).

The sheep and goat meat production trend analysis reveals that sheep and goats have made substantial contributions to Ethiopia's total meat production, next to cattle; (Bachewe et al., 2018). Reports indicate that sheep rank second in importance after cattle (Bachewe et al., 2018). Sheep meat production increased by 118.3%, and goat meat production increased by 179% over the analyze period, with significant quantity rises in both categories (Figure 3). Sheep meat production ranged from 19.71 to 43.04 thousand tons, while goat meat production increased from 8.75 to 24.41 thousand tons (Figure 3). On an annual basis, combined meat production from sheep and goats averaged 49.6 thousand tons, with sheep making a larger contribution compared to goats. This increasing trend in sheep and goat meat production can be attributed to their recognition as a source of livelihood for the poor and their popularity for individual/household slaughter (Negassa, etal., 2011). Additionally, their smaller size compared to cattle makes them preferred choices in recently expanded hotels and restaurants. Projections indicate that sheep and goat meat production will continue to rise, with a minimum projected growth of 157% between 2015 and 2050 (FAO & Palladium Group, 2019).

The analysis reveals that poultry meat production in Ethiopia has experienced a significant growth rate of approximately 87%, rising from 6.06 to 11.33 thousand tons. Poultry meat's contribution to total meat production has also seen a remarkable increase of 106% (Table 1). These substantial increases in poultry meat production suggest a growing adoption of poultry farming practices, driven by factors such as its family-oriented nature, space efficiency, and relatively low capital requirements (Sewunet, 2015; Sopov, 2018). The stable and sustainable growth observed in poultry meat output, as well as its contribution to the country's total meat production, can be attributed to favourable policies that promote the introduction of high-performing exotic poultry breeds/species and the active involvement of private sectors and small micro-enterprises in poultry production and meat processing (Abera Geleta, 2022). Reports indicate that annual poultry production contributes 72,300 metric tons of meat to the country's overall production (Abera Geleta, 2022). Projections indicate that poultry meat production in Ethiopia is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with a predicted growth of 377% between 2015 and 2050 (FAO & Palladium Group, 2019).

The analysis reveals significant increases in camel meat production and its contribution to the total meat production in Ethiopia over the analyses periods. Camel meat production increased and its contribution to total meat production grew from 13,940 tons to 32,568 tons, marking a substantial increase of 136.6%. The growth can be attributed to the rise in the number of camels used for meat production, which increased by 263.7% from 7,516 to 27,338. The increased number of camels in Ethiopia is a result of the priority given to camel husbandry by pastoral societies, as camels exhibit exceptional adaptability to arid and semi-arid environments, making them suitable for meat and milk production during droughts when other livestock species struggle (Catley, 2013; Mirkena et al., 2018). Despite the significant increase, camel meat production still contributes a relatively small amount to the overall meat production in Ethiopia. The limited consumption of camel meat outside of pastoral areas contributes to its smaller role in the country's total meat production. Camels are typically not slaughtered for home consumption, except on specific cultural occasions or in cases of accidental injury (Kena, 2022; Mirkena et al., 2018).

Table 1: Poultry meat production and its proportion to total meat production of the country

3.2 Progress in meat productivity

The analysis indicates that productivity improvements in meat production have been limited in Ethiopia, particularly for local breeds that have not been specifically bred for meat. Animal breeding efforts have primarily focused on crossbreeding for dairy development, rather than meat specialization. The study examined meat productivity trends per animal for sheep, goats, poultry, camels, and cattle from 2004/05 to 2018/19. On average, meat yield per animal remained relatively constant at approximately 10 kg for sheep, 8.5 kg for goats, 0.8 kg for poultry, and around 170 kg for camels. Cattle showed a productivity range of 108 to 109.2 kg per animal (Eshetie, 2018; FAO & Palladium Group, 2019). However, comparisons with other developing countries, such as Brazil and South Africa, should be interpreted with caution due to limited data and questions about accuracy.

A comparison between indigenous sheep and goat breeds in Ethiopia and South African breeds revealed differences in various aspects, including birth weights, breastfeeding duration, and slaughter weights (FAO & Palladium Group, 2019). Ethiopian sheep and goats have smaller body weights at slaughter age (18-20 kg for sheep and 16-18 kg for goats) and lower carcass weights (10 kg), resulting in lower meat productivity with an estimated annual production of 3-3.5 kg per animal. Similarly, there is a notable disparity in beef slaughter age weights between Ethiopia and Brazil, which significantly impacts meat productivity in the two countries.

The stagnant meat productivity across livestock types in Ethiopia suggests that the growth in meat output is primarily due to herd expansion rather than significant productivity improvements. This highlights the limited influence of animal science and technology in areas such as breeding, nutrition, and animal health, resulting in low production efficiency and minimal genetic advancements. The lack of progress and low livestock productivity can be attributed to factors such as poor management practices, slow growth, inadequate veterinary services, and the less productive genetic potential of livestock breeds, feed shortages, and unfavorable production environments (EARO, 2000).

3.3 Meat demand situations in the country

Ethiopia has 14 export abattoirs that produce approximately 200,000 tons of sheep, goat, and beef per year. The country's average annual exports consist of 1.5 million live sheep, over 200,000 camels, about 100,000 goats, and around 3,000 tons of sheep meat (Girmay & Yeserah, 2019; Mummed & Webb, 2019). Additionally, there is an increased domestic demand due to urbanization and economic growth (Shapiro,et. al., 2017; Eshetu & Abraham, 2016).

Domestic meat consumption in Ethiopia has shown a 24.7% increase from 1993 to 2013, with a notable rise starting from 2000. Furthermore, between 2015 and 2020, the consumption requirements for red meat rose due to factors such as the rapidly growing population, increasing urbanization, and rising incomes, presenting significant market opportunities for the red meat sub-sector (Shapiro et al., 2017). This indicates a substantial demand for meat within the country. However, despite these trends, the average meat available for consumption per capita in Ethiopia is relatively low compared to neighbouring countries and the African average (Eshetie, 2018; FAO & Palladium Group, 2019). For instance, while Ethiopia's average is 20 kg per year, the mean for Africa, Egypt, and Kenya is 32 kg, 49 kg, and 42 kg, respectively (Boeckel et al., 2017). Similarly, the country's mean daily meat consumption is 18.71 grams, which is considerably lower compared to Kenya (40.5 grams), Egypt (71.92 grams), and Sudan (56.5 grams). Also, the per capita meat consumption in Ethiopia was 8.3 kg per year, including 3.69 kg of beef, 2.34 kg of sheep and goat meat, 0.58 kg of poultry, and the remainder from pork and fisheries (Boeckel et al., 2017).

3.4 Meat price trends

According to data from the Ethiopian Statistical Service (ESS), beef prices in Ethiopia exhibited a consistent upward trend from 2009/10 to 2020/21, with occasional fluctuations. Prices steadily increased from 40.91 Birr per kilogram in 2009/10 to 268.29 Birr per kilogram in 2020/21. The most significant increase occurred between 2011/12 and 2013/14, with prices nearly doubling. The upward trend continued at a slightly slower pace from 2013/14 to 2019/20, and there was a notable acceleration in price growth between 2017/18 and 2020/21 (ESS, 2021) (Figure 4).

Figure 4: The meat price growth trends in Ethiopia by sourcing animal types